Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Where Will Tim Tebow End Up?

Here are the scenarios:
(1) Peyton comes to Denver; Tebow gets traded.
(2) Peyton comes to Denver, Tebow gets kept. Awkward!
(3) Peyton snubs Denver, Tebow gets kept. Still awkward!

There is a very good chance Peyton Manning goes to the Broncos. I cannot imagine that he wants to play with Tebow, and beyond John Elway's interest in wanting to exile Tebow anyway, this gives him the pretext to do it. And so the natural question is: Where might Tebow end up?

There is a conventional wisdom that the Jaguars would love to have him. The reality is that the Jaguars new owner would love to have him; his football staff is less excited about the prospect. (Let's be real here: What the owner wants, the owner will get. I'd like to see him call the GM's bluff -- does the GM really want to quit over this? GM jobs don't exactly grow on trees.)

Anyway, Peter King had a nugget buried in his weekly Tuesday column, worth paying attention to:
I wouldn't be surprised if the most Denver could get for Tebow is a fourth-round pick. I know the fans in Jacksonville want him, but I can't see GM Gene Smith brining him in to muddle the quarterback situation with a guy they're trying to salvage, Blaine Gabbert, who'd be in an unwinnable situation with the fans. It'd take a strong coach -- Bill Belichick, John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll -- not worried about the public pressure to play him to take Tebow on, in my opinion. I could see Belichick or Harbaugh making him a wild card type of player, playing 15 snaps a game all over the offense.
I absolutely agree with King's assessment that a strong coach would definitely want Tebow -- that's at the heart of why we've been saying for years (really: since 2009 or before) that Tebow would end up with the Patriots, even if he isn't the starting QB but merely an ultra-back that Bill Belichick unleashes on the rest of the NFL to the tune of 20 TDs a year.

I still think that if the Jaguars' owner wants him, he'll get him. The Jags are willing to pay more than the market rate (say, a 4th rounder).

This remains the most intriguing storyline of the NFL offseason -- even more intriguing than where Peyton Manning goes. And if/when Manning signs with the Broncos, this is going to become a frenzy, as usual.

-- Dan

9 comments:

  1. Thanks Dan. I'm doubting Jacksonville even if "what the owner wants, the owner gets", because the owner said he would have drafted Tebow, but that's not the same thing as saying he'd take him now...

    If Tebow indeed is traded for a fourth-round pick, two years after being drafted with a first-round pick, I'd love to hear analysis of how his stock dropped. As far as I can tell (which isn't far) he didn't do worse in his first two years than many rookie quarterbacks who went on to be great, so I don't see why his upside should be rated lower now than it was in 2010. Is this a case of him being undervalued because he doesn't fit a category teams are comfortable with? Or has he actually done worse than people were expecting? Even the haters in 2010 weren't projecting him to go as low as the fourth round.

    I suppose this should wait till he actually is traded.

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  2. Why does everybody think Bill Belicheat is the only one who can work with Tebow? I don't want him going to NE. The fans there are horrible. JAX is where he belongs and I can't see him playing anywhere else. Whatever the case, it's in God's hand and it'll all work out for the best. One lesson Tebow can learn from this experience is that people can love you one minute and turn their backs on you the next (Bronco fans) so you never want to rest your security on popularity.

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  3. Local sports radio in Nashville is reporting Manning to the Titans is a done deal. They were apparently working out the details today. No news on when this may be announced. Titans owner Bud Adams grandson is getting married this weekend so there is a thought that any announcement may not come until Monday.

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    1. ^^^^ If true, Titans makes complete sense. I can't think of any reason why he would be interested in Denver. I still think the leak to the media of Denver being a favorite was to get more money from other teams. Elway "desperately" wanted Manning. You look desperate and willing to throw a bunch of money at Manning, of course he's going to keep you around to get other teams to out bid.

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  4. "of course he's going to keep you around to get other teams to out bid."

    You might be right about that, uhnomnimous. Today the amount offered by Denver was leaked to the media. And it's supposedly less than people were expecting it to be. When I heard that, my first thought was that it was leaked by PM's camp, hoping that other teams will offer more.

    Also, the reason so many of us think Tebow's destined to end up w/Belichick is b/c BB is probably the most innovative HC around. He didn't get those 5 Super Bowl rings, & have multiple non-winning SB appearances, by cheating. He's nicknamed The Genius for a reason. He was publicly talking about the kind of plays that Tebow would be perfect to be used in long before Tebow even graduated. I agree w/you about the NE fans, though-they, & the NE media, are some of the worst in the country. And b/c of Brady's presence, Tim would only be able to be used in special package plays for possibly years. Not crazy about that, either.

    As for Jax, the OC is the son of Zeke Bratkowski, the guy that helped Tim get ready for his Pro Day. Both Zeke & his son, Bob, think very highly of Tim. Bob is also a former QC. And the Jags HC is also a former OC, so I'd think he & Bob should be able to come up w/plays that cater to Tim's strengths, while also helping him improve his deficiencies-hopefully, anyway. I'm just concerned that the new owner would only be interested in getting Tim as a gimmick to sell tickets. If, in fact, he'd be interested at all. They just spent a 1st round pick on Gabbert & would probably like to stick w/him for awhile.

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  5. Please cite the report where Elway is supposedly "desperate" for Manning. That sounds like opinion rather than fact. Any exec with cap room who doesn't look at acquiring a 4-time MVP and future hall-of-famer is nuts. This isn't about who does Timmy wrong and it's not about Elway trying to dump him. This is a front office trying to get better by chasing a proven commodity.

    The contract offer by the Broncos is consistent with what Manning made at Indy and is consistent with what the Titans are offering. Both teams are reportedly working off the framework of his previous contract. How is this considered lower than expectation?

    I'm a Bronco fan and a Tebow fan. I would love to see Tebow continue to play in Denver. But chances are Manning will take a team to a Superbowl before Tebow will. All things considered, I'd rather have Manning.

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    1. At the end of the day its all a business. Everyone has to do what is in their best interest. Denver does not owe Tebow anything regardless of what happened last year just like Tebow does not owe Denver anything regardless of what happened last year. If the Broncos feel that Manning will put their team in a better position to win than Tebow regardless of all the risk of Manning's health issue then they have every right to get him. Likewise if Tebow feels that Denver does not offer the best chance for him to start or mature as an NFL quarterback then he has every right to try to leave that situation.

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  6. "How is this considered lower than expectation?"

    John Bena, the guy that owns & runs milehighreport.com, who's very knowledgable about anything to do w/the NFL, said he was surprised it was 'only' $60 mil for 5 yrs w/$30 mil guaranteed. He thinks that's reasonable, but was wondering why the actual amount was being leaked at this point. As I said above, my theory is that it was PM's camp leaking it to get others to top it.

    "This is a front office trying to get better by chasing a proven commodity." I agree in theory & don't blame the Broncos mgmt for going after him. It's understandable why they would. But there's one major unknown here: Peyton Manning post-neck surgeries *isn't* a known commodity. That's the risk that's involved in this (as well as his age, since he hasn't played since he was 34). Not only for the teams trying to get him, but more importantly, for Peyton himself.

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  7. I just finally got around to seeing this fantastic 2-month-old vid:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-plyNrrFi1s&feature=player_embedded#!

    For those who haven’t seen it, be prepared to get goosebumps &, given the direction things have gone, possibly even a little misty-eyed.

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