Wednesday, April 21, 2010

NFL Tebow: Latest Draft Scenarios

Yesterday, Peter King revealed where he thought Tebow would go: 30th overall to the Vikings. This morning, Mel Kiper said the same thing.

Consider that for a moment: Mel Kiper is projecting Tim Tebow as a 1st-round pick. We have come so far. (More precisely, Kiper said he could see Tebow going at No. 30.)

Here are my latest Tebow Draft Scenarios (through Wednesday morning), ranked in order of likelihood. I was bullish on the Vikings a week ago, and I'm even more so today:

(1) Vikings at No. 30 overall.
Great fit. Don't need to trade up/out to get him.

(2) Bills in the 20s.
Requires a tricky trade-up.

(3) Bills in high-30s.
Requires a trade-up. Still tricky.

(4a) Patriots at 36 (trade with Chiefs).
Pioli does a solid for Belichick.

(4b) Broncos at 36 (trade with Chiefs).
Pioli deals with Belichick Mafia member McDaniels.

(5) Browns at 38.
If he's there, Holmgren takes him. OK, but not great fit.

(6) Raiders at 39.
If he's there, Al Davis takes him. Terrible scenario.

Tebow will NOT make it to the Bills' natural spot at 41. I'm almost ready to say that Tebow doesn't even make it to the Raiders at 39 -- that the Browns will take him at 38 if he's there.

The wild-card is if Tebow slips through the 1st round, which will create a scrum of opportunity between No. 33 and No. 36 as teams try to trade up to get him (and those woeful teams at the top of the 2nd round try to trade out to stockpile more picks).

However, I don't think Tebow slips through the 1st round. I think a team that really wants him -- like the Bills -- won't want to get into that 2nd-round scrum and risk not getting him. And I'm imploring the media to please stop talking about the Jaguars; that ain't happening.

Add in a few more expert opinions that emerged overnight:

*Alligator Army (which astutely agrees that context matters significantly in Tebow's future success and endorses the Vikings-at-30 concept),

*And the Gainesville Sun, which ranks which team is likely to take Tebow from 1 to 32.

(The Sun starts out OK with the Bills at 1 and Vikings at 2, then goes off the rails with the Jaguars at 3 and Seahawks at 4, not mentioning the Browns until No. 8.)

1 comment:

  1. If you saw the interview with Bronco's HC yesterday on NFL network he was hard core emphasizing building a team with leaders that had "team mentality." That's totally Tebow. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they pick him at #11.