Tuesday, April 13, 2010

NFL Tebow: Latest Draft Scenarios

Based on reading the various tea leaves, here is the first/only ranking of Tebow draft scenarios, from most likely:

(1) Bills trade up to 20-30 (1st Round)
(1b) Bills trade up to 31-32 (1st Round)
(2) Browns at No. 38 overall
(3) Bills trade up from No. 41 to 33-36
(4) Vikings at No. 30 (1st Round)
(5) Raiders at No. 39 overall
(6) Patriots trade up to 33-36
(7) Jaguars trade up to 33-36

I do not think that Tebow will last longer than the Raiders at No. 39, thus no (realistic) scenario where the Bills take him at No. 41. Please note the scenario I don't list (yet): Bills at No.9.

The reason I think the Bills are going to have to move up from No. 41 into the 1st round if they really want to get Tebow is best supported by this recent quote from Bill Belichick, on the dramatic new competitive dynamics of the 2nd round:
I kind of think the second round will now be like the first round. Take those [top] 32 players out of there, whoever they are, now you're starting all over again for that second round. And I can see it being approached more as that first round. In the past, you kind of rolled into that round. Now, to actually stop and have the whole night to sit there and think about it and talk to other teams and develop a new strategy. Everybody does that on the second day; now we have three days. It's a different dynamic.
The Bills -- or any team that really wants Tebow -- can't risk what will undoubtedly be a bidding frenzy around 2nd-round picks. The only choice is to trade up to the back of the 1st round.

(Similarly, I don't think that the Broncos' trade for the 43rd pick -- to go with their own 45th pick -- will be enough to trade into the 1st round to get Tebow, nor will they want to.)

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