Thursday, April 22, 2010

NFL Tebow: Final Draft Prediction
Tim Tebow to Vikings No. 30 Overall

It's time for the final prediction of where Tim Tebow will be picked in the 2010 NFL Draft:

Tim Tebow: 1st Round, No. 30 overall, to the Minnesota Vikings.

It makes sense for a lot of reasons, most capably explained here by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's Mike Rand: (Eventual) need, upside, time to develop, success with "reach" picks.

I love his third point, which I think has been almost entirely overlooked, while everyone worries about how many years it will take Tebow to develop into an NFL QB:

While Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy might sit the entire year without contributing anything, Tebow could very conceivably step in for 4-6 incredibly crucial snaps per game -- short-yardage situations, goal-line situations.

In other words: Situations where games are won and lost. All as a rookie.

There is also that cryptic quote from Tebow's agent Jimmy Sexton, who said he has a pretty good idea of where Tebow will be taken, implying it would be the first round. Well, given the uncertainty of trading -- particularly trading into the 1st round -- that would seemingly eliminate the Bills trading up to the mid-20s... and suggest a team with a "natural" pick: The Vikings.

Again, from earlier this morning: All signs point to Tebow being taken in the 1st round, and the most likely contender -- and best fit -- would be the Minnesota Vikings.


Other scenarios:

Nominally realistic:
*Bills trade up into the mid-20s.

Only realistic if he drops into the 2nd round (which we don't think is realistic):
*Bills trade up to low-30s
*Patriots trade up to low-30s
*Broncos trade up to low-30s
*Seahawks trade up to low-30s
*Eagles at 37
*Browns at 38
*Raiders at 39

*Bills at 41 (any team beyond 39)
*Jaguars at all.


  1. OK, I'm still learning here, so if anyone can answer this for me, I'd appreciate it. Why shouldn't the Pats just take Tim at their natural 1st-round #22 spot? Something to do w/guaranteed $, maybe?

  2. From the ESPN article by Johnette Howard

    "Just across the room waiting to talk to him next sat a blogger who had earlier joked (sort of) to me that he'd secretly hoped Tebow might be persuaded to perform a circumcision on his infant son."

    Dan, was this you? Cause it sounds awfully familiar. lol ;-)


  3. Brooke, it's all about needs in the 1st round usually. And the patriots have bigger needs than a QB, so because of that it doesn't make sense to take Tebow there. Nothing at all to do with money or anything along those lines.

  4. Thanks, Jeff. Since they have so many picks in this draft, I thought they'd be safe in using #22 for him. Guess not...

  5. For the record, my final prediction: Denver.

    Maybe not at #11, but with Josh McDaniels being a disciple of Belichick, he would do him a solid and make a trade for Denver's 2 2nd round picks and get him at 22.

    And I still don't rule out Jacksonville...

  6. This article by Dan brings up something I have always been thinking. I truly believe Tebow could have possibly been the Gators MVP OFF the bench when they won the championship with Chris Leak as QB.

    IMO Tebow was the guy that gave the Gators an unfair advantage and helped them narrowly edge out so many of those games.

    I think Tebow could do the same thing in the NFL. I am wondering if Tebow could dominate the NFL off the bench. There is so much parity in the SEC and the NFL. You have an edge like Tebow in key situations and it could give your team an advantage that can't be matched. Also, when you factor in the dearth of quality QBs that you can obtain these days think of the starter as the backup.. not Tebow coming off the bench.