Friday, April 2, 2010

NFL Tebow: 2nd Round Scenarios

Consider this post the companion to yesterday's post about the scenarios where Tim Tebow is drafted in the 1st round of the 2010 NFL Draft. Same set-up:

Three weeks from today, Tim Tebow will either be basking as the top-of-the-headlines coverage that he was drafted the night before, in the 1st round...

...or he will be anxiously waiting to see who drafts him in the 2nd round. If Tebow is NOT taken in the 1st round, "Where will Tebow go?" will be THE story of Friday morning before the 2nd round, even eclipsing Sam Bradford going No. 1 overall, 1st-round trades, whatever.

Consider that for a second: The draft status of a 2nd-round pick will be the No. 1 story of the NFL Draft, the morning after the 1st round of the draft is held. Unprecedented.

Regardless, if Tebow isn't drafted in the 1st round, the hours in between the end of the 1st round and the start of the 2nd round will be a frenzy of Tebow-related deal-making.

Now that Tebow has cleared the guaranteed contract that comes with being a 1st-round pick, a slew of teams will jockey to invest a 2nd-round pick on him.

In fact, I can't see Tebow going any later than the first few picks of the 2nd round. There are two main scenarios:

Scenario 1: A team with a natural selection at the top of the 2nd round will take him. The Rams, Lions, Bucks and Chiefs presumably don't want/need him. Then it gets interesting:

5th pick of the 2nd round: Redskins, who will be a hot suitor (if they don't get Bradford in Round 1).

6th pick: Browns, another team that could use a QB for the future -- Mike Holmgren had a lot to say about Tebow at his Pro Day in Gainesville.

7th pick: Raiders. You know Al Davis is hot to draft Tebow, if only because he appreciates Tebow's marketing value as much as any owner.

8th pick: Chargers. Unlikely.

9th pick: Bills. If Tebow is still around -- and, of course, presuming the Bills haven't taken Tebow with the 9th overall pick of the Draft the night before (where he is predicted to go by the latest mock draft of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) -- I assume they will draft him here. He will not drop beyond this point.

The Patriots have picks at No. 12 and No. 15 of the 2nd round. I just don't see Tebow slipping down to them at those points. Which leads to...

Scenario 2: A team trades up to the top of the round to get Tebow. I could see the talent-starved Rams, Lions, Bucks and Chiefs all willing to trade out of their positions in order to stockpile more picks later in the round -- or into the later rounds of the Draft.

This is where the Patriots -- if they really want Tebow -- can package one of their 3 2nd-round picks, along with later-round picks, to move up and get him, while still retaining at least two other 2nd-round picks they can use for a more pressing need.

But there are plenty of other teams that might want to trade up, including the Bills (9th pick of 2nd round), the Panthers (16th) or Cowboys (27th). And don't discount one of those teams picking between No. 5 and No. 7 in the round (Redskins, Browns, Raiders) -- fearing being jumped for Tebow -- trading up those few spots to secure him.

There you have it: I put Tebow's draft "floor" at the No. 9 pick of the 2nd round -- to the Bills. That's as far as he will fall; if he goes any lower, I will be very surprised.

The more likely scenario is that he goes ahead of that, perhaps as early as the 1st pick of the 2nd round, particularly given that teams can spend the entire night after the 1st round scheming and dealing to make their move for Tebow.

There will not be another installment of this series to cover the 3rd round -- three weeks from Saturday -- because Tebow will be long gone by then.

Tebow's status as a "Top 41" pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is "when," (and "to whom") not "if."

If the latest mock draft in the AJC is any indication, Tebow's stock is going up so quickly that by next week, we will have to revise this post to say "There's no way he's slipping out of the 1st round."

-- D.S.

3 comments:

  1. The Patriots have the 10th pick in the second round. They got it from Jacksonville. Wouldn't it be so ironic if they picked Tebow with the Jag's pick?

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  2. According to videos on CSNNE.com:

    (1) Tom Dimitroff, Falcons GM, believes Tebow will be gone by #32.

    (2) Michael Holley, a beat reporter for the Patriots, believes that Tebow won't make it past the Patriots' pick at #22.

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  3. "(2) Michael Holley, a beat reporter for the Patriots, believes that Tebow won't make it past the Patriots' pick at #22."

    I just watched the video again & he actually said he thought Tebow would be gone BEFORE the Pats pick at #22.

    I know Tim was impressive on his Pro Day, but to have so many people suddenly so bullish on Tim-even more bullish than Dan currently is-seems odd to me.

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