Tuesday, March 2, 2010

NFL Tebow: ESPN Fantasizes

I would like everyone to go back to the launch of this blog back in July, when I said that Tim Tebow's draft status would be the biggest story in the NFL offseason and a lot of people mocked me.

Currently leading the front page of ESPN.com is a massive package all about where Tebow might get drafted, featuring extensive team-by-team analysis by all 8 of ESPN.com's divisional NFL bloggers. Given that it is March 2, this is an epic package that supports the theory that Tebow's draft status isn't just the biggest NFL story of the spring... but the biggest sports story, period:


My biggest issue with their team-by-team analysis of where Tebow might land is that they don't actually rank any team as having a "high" chance of taking him -- the tops is "medium" (Redskins, 49ers, Rams, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Bills, Pats, Broncos, Raiders). That seems like a lot of teams.

They also list the Jaguars as "low," which I think couldn't be more wrong -- and to suggest that they won't let the marketing department make their pick for them is misguided; replace "marketing department" with "owner," and I'll tell you who wins that battle. It should at least be "medium."

There are a bunch of teams listed as "no chance" that feel awkward -- the analysts seem to base their decision around whether Tebow would step in and start immediately, rather than projecting him as a capable back-up and special-situation QB for a few seasons before taking over. You know: The standard model for QBs selected in the draft.

Mostly, my issue is that they don't distinguish between a team using a 1st-round pick on Tebow and a team using a 2nd-round pick on Tebow. And some of the team-by-team analysis puts Tebow on a team's radar beyond the 2nd round; he isn't lasting that long.

I go back to my original theory: Tebow's stock isn't going down from here; it will only go up. Even after the Senior Bowl, there was no way he was lasting past the mid-2nd round. Now layer in his "revamping" mechanics, his stellar Combine workouts, his terrific interviews. Stock: Up.

Wait until his Pro Day, when he looks so much better than he did in Mobile. Then watch the jockeying between March 17 and the first day of the Draft -- if he falls through the 1st round, he could be the 1st pick of the 2nd round the next day. Again: His stock is only going up, no matter how much it might drive the draftniks crazy.

The entire thing is worth your time -- I don't agree with a bunch of the theories being thrown out there, but they are interesting for their own sake. I really do think that the vast majority of sports media are completely mis-reading both the market for Tebow and the opportunity for his success, both in the short- and long-term. (Consider that these are the same folks who were taken by complete surprise when the Wildcat was imported from college to the NFL; imagination isn't their strong suit. Adhering to orthodoxy is.)

UPDATE: By the way, 62 percent of fans on ESPN.com think Tebow is drafted by the end of the 2nd round. Again: It doesn't matter where Todd McShay GRADES Tebow; it only matters where Tebow is actually drafted.

11 comments:

  1. That article is stupid. For example is says no way the redskins go for him then it has them as medium then for Arizona it says he would be a good fit but is rated low. Doesn't make sense.

    Mark my words... The Cowboys will draft him.

    My prediction is now on the record.

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  2. Grant, why do you think Dallas? I thought texans hated him?

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  3. Thanks for pointing this out, Dan.

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  4. I say Tim's going to be drafted by the Patriots, in the 2nd round.

    He looks really good in that Pats uniform!!

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  5. Still got my eyes on the vikings... they have a year to work with him before giving him the starting position. Tebow, Harvin, Peterson is an offensive coordinators dream combo.

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  6. I think the Vikings, Raiders, 49ers, and Patriots are somewhat likely destinations for Tebow. There are other places too like Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina, Seattle, Denver and other places too where he could be drafted.

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  7. Jennifer,

    Here's a few quick reasons that I think the Cowboys would want him:

    -They need star-power to keep that 100K capacity stadium full
    -Jerry Jones has been quoted saying he loves Tebow

    This is a quote from JJ:

    "We may want to do some things and our offense this year with a third quarterback," Jones said. "That's something other than be there as a backup to the second quarterback and be there in case you lose all the quarterbacks and be there not certainly as a development prospect, but we could hopefully find a quarterback with a set of skills that we could put some packages in for."
    -They run some wildcat, Garret is a fairly innovative OC
    -They don't have a solid backup (Kitna hasn't seen any game action in close to two years)
    -They don't have any major holes to fill so they can afford to take a risk in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

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  8. All I have to say like I said in previous post.. " NOT THE PATRIOTS!!!!!!" thank you!! lol

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  9. I still think he compares favorably, physically speaking, to David Garrard, who's at least held down the fort here for a good while.

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  10. Tim Tebow is a Spread Quarterback. Say it with me now: Spread Quarterback. These guys have almost zero success rate in the NFL. Record-setting quarterbacks who ran the spread offense in college, guys like Graham Harrell, Dennis Dixon, and Colt Brennan, just do not make it in the NFL as quarterbacks.
    Tebow is certainly special. He's a super-competitive hard-working team-leading upstanding-character with a huge build and a big arm, but he's still just another spread quarterback.
    Now, Tim Tebow the tight end/runningback/spread QB (in approximately that order), I forsee revolutionizing the NFL. He'll be like Reggie Bush meets Michale Vick meets Jesus meets Mr. T. Just not as a starting QB.

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  11. He goe to Jax its not going to sell tickets because they just like College football there better and they know he's in Jax just to sell tickets and be their mascot! not a good idea to go to Jax!! BUT I think he should go to Buffalo! They need help so bad! He goes there and help the team and they start winning!! New Yorkers might just remember that Buffalo is actually a part of New York!! boy he would be cold though. Florida boy might not be able to tolerate that bitter cold! LOL

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