Monday, November 30, 2009

Tebow Heisman Watch: The Final Four

Per Pete Thamel, the Heisman race seems to be down to four players: Colt McCoy, Toby Gerhart, Mark Ingram... and Tim Tebow.

I predict all four will be invited to New York -- even if Tebow finishes 4th, there is no way they don't bring him as a finalist (rather than his attending as a former winner).

I have been saying since August that the Heisman is McCoy's to lose, because he will be undefeated and because voters love the "career achievement" angle, especially since he has never won it.

Ingram has to lead Alabama over Florida and have a monster game. After last week, I'm not sure he can.

Ironically, Gerhart reminds me of Tebow in 2007: A weaker team, but he is literally and metaphorically carrying them, with eye-popping stats and a terrific back story.

Tebow will be limited by three things: (1) Weaker stats relative to '07, (2) Southeast regional split with Ingram, (3) non-Southeast voters leave him entirely off their ballots (like last year, when Tebow had more 1st-place votes than Bradford or McCoy yet still finished behind both).

Here are the conditions under which Tebow might win the 2009 Heisman:
Condition 1: Texas loses to Nebraska.
Condition 2: Florida beats Alabama.
Condition 3: Tebow has a huge/memorable game.

All of those conditions would have to be met. Even then, I still would only give him a 70/30 shot. If McCoy leads Texas over Nebraska (as expected), I think it's over and McCoy wins.

Still: All signs point to Tebow finishing his Heisman-winning career as a three-time Heisman finalist -- unprecedented.

And, as Tebow will be the first to say, the Heisman is meaningless if Florida doesn't win the SEC title, then go on to win the national title.

Like Bradford a year ago, McCoy can have it -- if it offers comfort after the Big 12 champ loses the national title game.


  1. Remember how many of the BIG12 voters completely left Tebow off their ballot last season? I definitely think SEC voters should do the same this year regarding Colt McCoy. Colt McCoy has 9 interceptions this year I believe. He should not be eligible for the HEisman.

  2. Winning the Heisman had been a JINX for the past 4 years Bush(05),Smith(06),Tebow(07), Bradford(08). They all lost their final games. Let McCoy have the heisman and the Gators win the BCS championship

  3. Consider the following scenario: McCoy wins the Heisman, Florida beats Texas for the BCS Title. Tebow's final legacy: in four years, he won one Heisman and the other three years beat the Heisman winner for the BCS Title (sure, Leak was the starter and the winner, but Tebow accounted for more points than the OSU offense did).