Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Can Tebow, Florida Struggle to a BCS Title?

Let's start with this: If you asked any team in the country if they could switch places with Florida -- personnel, coaches, the whole thing -- every single team would do it. (And if, say, Alabama and Texas don't want to do it, they will learn their lesson -- directly -- down the road.)

Related: I will take issue with one point Jeremy Fowler made in his must-read blog post about why we shouldn't count out Tim Tebow:

"There's only so long you can hold onto an undefeated record with defense and the kicking game."

I disagree, actually.

First of all, it's not like the offense is completely stalled out -- as Tebow pointed out yesterday, they are still moving the ball... just not scoring TDs in the red zone.

But, more importantly, I think we're watching one of the greatest defenses in college football history. This is the group that shut down Oklahoma last year -- a better group, actually.

Florida will not see an offense as good as Oklahoma's was last year for the rest of the season -- or at any point this season, actually.

No team should score more than 10-12 points on this defense. Consider that MSU scored two TDs on interceptions -- that had nothing to do with Florida's defense. Take away those, and the Bulldogs score 6 measly points.

(Arkansas' 20-point "binge" was an aberration you won't see again -- frankly, directly attributable to two instances of blown coverage by the normally reliable Janoris Jenkins, one that led to that 75-yard TD pass to vault Arkansas from 13 points to 20.)

And so even with red-zone TD issues, the offense will produce more than 12 points a game, just on field goals, field position (via special teams) and defensive touchdowns.

It isn't pretty. And it's too close for comfort -- at least for Florida fans.

But it is effective.

Effective enough to keep winning games, through the end of the regular season. Through the SEC title game against Alabama. Through the BCS national-title game against, say, Texas.

You might ask "Well, how will Florida score on juggernauts like Alabama or Texas?"

Perhaps the better question is: "Well, how will Alabama or Texas score on Florida?"

UPDATE: You absolutely positively must read Saurian Sagacity's latest post, related to this topic. It will not only make you feel better about the state of things -- it will make you question why you are even concerned.

1 comment:

  1. I think OU's offense was massively overrated. Look at Alabama.. they scored as well as OU in the SEC championship against Florida and did it without Tim's interceptions and people didn't think Alabama's offense was anything special. The reason is that BIG12 offenses are overrated and SEC offenses are underrated. This is why the Gator's offensive issues are likely not serous compared to other teams in the country.. its just perception.

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