Colt McCoy, not Tim Tebow, is the favorite to win the 2009 Heisman, according to Chris Huston, who runs the awesome HeismanPundit.com, which -- for my money -- is the leading indicator of Heisman tracking in the country.
It feels like the strongest argument for McCoy is not affirmative, but rather defensive: "Well, he is the only one of the Big Three -- Tebow, Bradford, McCoy -- NOT to have won it."
It's the old "He's due" rationale.
I disagree with voters who use the "Lifetime Achievement" philosophy to pick their Heisman winner, but I also recognize that is a huge factor with many voters. (I also recognize that Tebow -- as "GOAT"-eligible -- might benefit from this, too.)
Meanwhile, let's remember the most notable detail of the 2008 vote: Tebow earned more 1st-place votes than any other player, including Bradford.
In regional breakdowns, it felt like voters in the Midwest and Southwest intentionally left Tebow off their ballots, in order to increase the chances of their guys, Bradford and/or McCoy.
McCoy and Bradford will once again split votes in those regions -- and I suspect that many voters will continue to either shunt Tebow into 3rd or leave him off completely, if they can.
Here is what it comes down to: If Tebow has Florida unbeaten after the SEC title game, wire-to-wire No. 1 heading into the Heisman voting deadline and BCS title-game pairing, he will win the award. If Florida stumbles, Tebow's Heisman chances are gone -- but at that point, I suspect that neither he nor Florida fans will care much about the Heisman.
McCoy must beat Bradford head-to-head, while leading Texas to an unbeaten season and Big 12 championship. At that point, I think most voters will, at the very least, have McCoy over Bradford.
The only debate then is between McCoy and Tebow.
Absolutely a dynamic that will be must-track throughout the season.