"Those [comments] were way out of proportion, he's not going to be an NFL quarterback. Wherever he goes, he's going to make that team better because he's such a competitor and a great person."
Friday, March 19, 2010
Tebow vs. Henne: Chad Backtracks
Thursday, March 18, 2010
NFL Tebow: Bills, Pats, Redskins, Browns, Seahawks
The Redskins have the 5th pick of the 2nd round, the Browns have the 6th, the Bills have the 9th. The Seahawks have two 1st-round picks, neither of which I predict will be used on Tebow, and a late-2nd. I don't think Tebow will still be around at that point, and I'm also unclear why Pete Carroll is looking at Tebow; Tebow doesn't seem to be his kind of "classic" QB.
Let's keep an eye on the wild card: The Patriots have 3 2nd-round picks, and I am coming around to my original theory that dates back at least a year, if not further: The Patriots will end up drafting Tebow.
The only question is whether Belichick is willing to trade up closer to the top of the 2nd round, because that's where I predict he goes -- I don't think he lasts past the Bills. (The Jaguars have no 2nd-round pick, but could certainly trade up.)
NFL Tebow: Pro Day Reactions
Period.
Those were the terms of engagement -- of expectations -- and they were set not by Tebow or his team, but by the NFL draftniks who drilled him during and after the Senior Bowl.
Ironically, it was that group that created expectations so low that ANY improvement would be considered tremendous improvement.
And it allows the storyline to progress like this: If this is how much he improved after a month, how much better can he get after 3 months, 9 months, a year -- even two years?
You can see the benefit of these low initial expectations -- and new momentum for Tebow's draft potential -- in the comments coming out of the Pro Day event. A sampling:
"From the Senior Bowl to now, the improvement is ridiculous. I was blown away. ... What he's done in six weeks with that delivery and his footwork is a testament to his coaches and the fact he's willing to work so hard." (NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock)
"I think he’s more compact and he looks more comfortable in his sets. Everything’s just tighter and more compact. I think it was a good first step. He still has a long way to go, and none of it is battle-tested in game experience, but I think if you’re a team seriously considering drafting him, today was positive in that you saw he accepted he has to work on certain areas, he’s been working on them, and he’s making strides." (Todd McShay, to the Palm Beach Post)
"He had a very good workout. I saw some adjustments he made and thought he executed very well." (Panthers coach John Fox)
"I know he's been working at it, and if anybody can do it, it would be him. He certainly has a will to prepare. People say there's always exceptions to the rule. If there's going to be one at the quarterback spot, it will be him." (Jaguars GM Gene Smith)
"You can tell he's trying to make adjustments to his motion. That seems to be what people are fired up about, and he's working very hard to do that, and it showed today. I thought he had a pretty good workout." (Browns president Mike Holmgren)
"I don't think it's dramatic. I'd say there are subtle differences and those of who know the position a little bit and have coached the position a little bit saw it." (Holmgren)
"He came out, did what he had to do. He's a talented guy, he's a popular guy, he's a sharp guy, he's a smart guy, he's had success all his career and I'm sure nothing will be different when he goes to the next level." (Bucs coach Raheem Morris)
"He didn't revert to any of his old habits today; he really had a nice day. ... He's a quarterback. He's where he should be right now." (Tebow tutor Zeke Bratkowski)
I'll leave the last word to Tebow, who affirms my theory at the top:
"I think that’s the great thing about work ethic is when you want to change something, if you work on it enough it will change. … I wanted to prove that I’ve gotten better and that's all I’ve really been thinking about."
Tim Tebow vs. Chad Henne
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Tebow Invited to NFL Draft in New York
Typically, a player without a guaranteed place in the 1st round would not be invited. But between Tebow's celebrity -- he is clearly the most popular and well-known player in the Draft class -- and the draft's new format, inviting him was obvious.
Even if Tebow doesn't go in the 1st round, the new three-day format would create entirely new anticipation for the top of the 2nd round, which happens on Friday.
In fact, I would argue that Tebow not taken in the 1st round will be the biggest storyline following the 1st round -- that is, the anticipation of where he might go in Round 2. Those with "Tebow fatigue" will hate it, but that's going to be the story.
There is an interesting argument to be made that with all of the 1st-rounders gone, Tebow has the entire stage to himself heading into the draft's second day.
That makes it a terrific move for the NFL to invite him -- and for Tebow to enthusiastically accept.
NFL Tebow: Pro Day Reviews
Yes: His mechanics are improved. Are they flawless? No. Do they need to be? No.
That's where the draftniks -- who seem to evaluate Tebow based on his ability to immediately step in and start in the NFL -- are so off-base.
The point I've been trying to make recently is that all he needs to show is directional improvement; he has 18-24 months of dedicated training from his NFL coaching staff to get better.
So the big question is: Can he be even a LITTLE bit improved with just a few weeks of coaching? The answer seems to be yes.
Meanwhile, plenty of coaches and team scouts in attendance -- obviously, they are not there to look at Tebow exclusively.
But it is worth wondering if Tebow made enough of an impression on Panthers coach John Fox to get Carolina into the Tebow derby.
Again, I doubt he will move up into the 1st round -- even the tail end of the 1st round. But I think there will be a scrum at the top of the 2nd to get him. All it takes is two teams to create a scrum.
More later.
UPDATE: Here's Adelson's report. Great stuff in here.
Tebow Pro Day: Throwing at Noon
Per @osaadelson -- the Twitter feed of Andrea Adelson of the Orlando Sentinel, a must-follow. You should also follow @onlygators. Both are at The Swamp and filing regular reports via Twitter.
Tebow Pro Day Today: 10,000 Fans?
If you are going to be there, shoot over an email with your attendance estimate.
Much more later this morning.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
NFL Tebow: One Day Til Pro Day
While you wait, here is a very thoughtful (and long) post from TeamSpeedKills about the whole Tebow-Meyer-NFL development story. Kneejerk analysis is the coin of the realm, but sometimes, a few weeks to digest can result in some really terrific work, as you'll see in that piece.
BTW: Can we all agree that when John Brantley steps in next year and just kills it -- and I'm talking about being so effective that NFL scouts are talking about him being a 1st-round pick NEXT year, not in 2012 (not unlike the leap made by USC's Mark Sanchez) -- that this meme will end? Brantley has more natural NFL QB potential than any Florida QB in generations.
Get ready for tomorrow.
Monday, March 15, 2010
NFL Tebow: Countdown to Pro Day
At the event, Tebow will unveil his modified mechanics. Obviously, it's just a start, to be continued throughout private workouts with individual teams.
But the meme of Tebow's draft-stock revitalization begins on Wednesday. As I have said: His stock won't get worse from its current "2nd round" status.
I think, at worst, he goes at or near the top of the 2nd round after a frenzied night of trade discussions among plenty of interested teams.
But depending on what happens on Wednesday, I would say the 1st round isn't entirely out of the question (although it remains a long shot).
ESPN.com's Woj has a good take that helps set the context for Wednesday. Suffice to say, Gene is a Tebow fan. Keep an eye on the analysis from the unnamed scout at the bottom.
(I should also point to this column from Yahoo's Jason Cole, who actually lives in Gainesville. Not that I think that colored his perspective that someone will take a flier on TT.)
Friday, March 12, 2010
Tim Tebow Will NOT Be a Jaguar
What we’ve got to do is trust our value board in our draft. If we force a pick, then we devalue thousands of hours of work by our scouts. We have to be true to our mission and go take the best player with our pick. When we do that, we get good results.
We all know we’ve done it the other way in the past and it didn’t work. Shame on you if you don’t learn from your mistakes. You stay true to your process.
And that, my friends, is that. My operating theory for a while was that Weaver would overrule his football people and tell them to take Tebow. Apparently, he will not do that.
Consequently, there is no way the Jaguars have Tebow at No. 10 on their "value board," and lacking a 2nd-round pick (or even any speculation they will be able to trade up to the top of the 2nd, where there will be a scrum for Tebow), Tebow will NOT be a Jaguar.
NFL Tebow: Bills The Best Fit?
*Need a franchise QB. I'm not saying that Tim Tebow can or will be that franchise QB, but the team certainly needs one.
*Need a "face" of the franchise. Say what you want about Tebow's mechanics -- he has more "face of the franchise" potential than any player in the draft.
*No pressure to win now. If you stipulate that Tim Tebow needs 2-3 years to develop into a reliable starting QB, then this is a great spot, because no one expects the Bills to contend anytime soon. (Let's call this the "McNair Scenario" -- the Titans made a similar commitment when drafting McNair.)
*Strategically, why not? The Bills are going nowhere. The team could experiment with some sort of crazy, Tebow-friendly hybrid offense without really risking anything. Just look in their own division: It worked for the Dolphins.
*Amazing fan base that will love Tebow's attitude. For gosh sakes, they embraced T.O. -- they're going to freak out over Tebow.
Now, at least a few obvious downsides: Tebow isn't ready to step in and be a starting QB; will they ruin him by rushing him?
And, more than anything: The Bills play in arguably the windiest and least-hospitable conditions in the league. Tebow has never played anywhere but moderate climate of the South. That, to me, is as big of an X-factor as anything.
The other question is the same I had for Jags season-ticket holders: Are we talking about drafting Tebow in the Top 10 overall... or merely at all? (Wouldn't it be ironic if they took Tebow at No. 9, directly in front of Jacksonville?)
Buffalo also holds the 41st overall pick, 9 picks into the 2nd round. Per yesterday's discussion, I don't think Tebow will be around at 41 for the Bills to take; they would have to go into the overnight break between the 1st and 2nd rounds with the intent to trade up to get him.
But at the top of the 2nd round, the Bills are as strong of a contender to draft Tebow as anyone.
(h/t: OnlyGators via Twitter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010
NFL Tebow: Pro Day Prep
NFL Tebow: Second Round It Is!
Of course, they have to add the snarky bit that, even there, Tebow would be "a reach," but the fact is that any draft expert looks bad if their projection doesn't match reality.
And the reality is that Tim Tebow will be a 2nd-round pick.
Now, let me say something here for the first time: I, too, think that Tebow will be a 2nd-round pick.
For many months, I have been promoting the "Tebow as 1st-rounder" point. Even after the Senior Bowl. Why? Because I was convinced that the Jaguars would behave simultaneously irrationally (not picking the player they need on the field) and rationally (picking the player who best helps the franchise, in more ways than simply on the field) and take him at No. 10.
That was based on the presumption that Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver would overrule his GM and coach and insist the team take Tebow. However, that was also based on the idea that Weaver's decision would have popular support.
I was blown away by the feedback from Jags season-ticket holders that they do not approve of the team drafting Tebow -- presumably with that No. 10 overall pick. It doesn't matter that the vote was nearly 50/50; Weaver needed it to be 80/20, with 80 percent in favor.
It also doesn't matter that there are plenty of non-season-ticket holders who would buy tickets if Tebow was on the team. Season-ticket holders are a better proxy for fan interest and support.
Without that kind of populist back-up, I don't see Weaver insisting his GM take Tebow at No. 10. And without that pressure, I don't think the GM takes Tebow at 10 -- not when the team has so many other needs that would potentially be better-served with a different player at No. 10.
Without the Jaguars taking him at 10, I don't see a team -- under the current draft order (meaning: barring a trade-up on draft day) -- taking Tebow in the 1st round. It is too much guaranteed money for, fairly or unfairly assessed, an uncertain return.
ALL THAT SAID...
I think that Tebow will go right at the top of the 2nd round. The new draft format means that when the 1st round is over on Thursday night, there will be an entire news cycle of crazy build-up before the 2nd round starts on Friday.
Teams -- at least one team -- will talk themselves into trading up to the top of the 2nd round for Tebow, before someone else can grab him. Every pick that goes by in the 2nd will only amplify that pressure. (If a team knows they DON'T want Tebow and are picking at the top of the 2nd, they can seriously get a deal with a team that wants to trade up to get him.)
Here is another huge implication: Outside of the 1st round, the contracts get substantially smaller -- and entirely unguaranteed. This mitigates much of the risk of drafting Tebow that will keep teams away in the 1st round (beyond their interest in drafting other positions).
It also means that the field of potential teams to draft him expands way beyond the Jaguars -- who, it should be pointed out, don't have a 2nd-round pick. But the Patriots have THREE of them (longtime readers know that I think the Pats are the best fit for Tebow). The Bills will want him. The Panthers may want him. The Redskins might take him.
ALL THAT SAID...
There is still the chance for Tebow to work himself into the 1st round. We are a week away from Tebow's "Pro Day," which will only improve his stock -- the buzz coming out of that will be huge. Individual workouts and competing spin through the major sports news outlets will only increase the buzz -- to the point where a team that doesn't want to wait for the top of the 2nd round might very well trade up into the 1st to take him.
But the more realistic scenario is that Tebow will fall through the 1st round and into the 2nd round -- and, make no mistake, Tebow NOT being drafted (and STILL being available) will be a bigger story than any single 1st-round draft pick. And there will be a scrum to get him at the top of the 2nd. And, I should add, I still believe he will be worth that high of a valuation.
It is funny that the market appears to have settled -- between the most bullish (me) and the least (Kiper, McShay) -- at Tebow being a 2nd-rounder. The draftniks seem to do it begrudgingly -- if they got paid for every caveat, they could retire after the draft is over. I think the market will only heat up overnight between the 1st and 2nd round, putting him at the top of the 2nd.
Not to strain the rationalization, but that's actually a heck of a lot more interesting than the simplified notion of the Jags taking him at No. 10 and that's that.
-- Dan
(Credit where it's due: I first broke my new perspective on the Kissing Suzy Kolber podcast last night. I keep it clean but some other parts of the podcast are a little salty.)
Tim Tebow vs. Chris Walsh
It's not a precise analogy, and Feldman offers up at least as much evidence to support Tebow's changes as be skeptical of them, but it is a very interesting anecdote that reaches back into college football history. Worth a read.
NFL Tebow: Would Parcells Draft?
Now, Parcells already made his play for a long-term QB -- Chad Henne (who fits all those criteria, btw) -- but it makes you wonder how many Parcells disciples follow a similar framework.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Tim Tebow Scores 22 on Wonderlic
Now, Wonderlics are famous for not necessarily predicting anything -- see Vince Young, not to mention Terry Bradshaw and Dan Marino, the two most prominent Wonderlic duds.
But as with everything else during this draft season, Tim Tebow's score will be THE headliner of the meme. What does it all mean? Not much, but I'm sure draftniks will find a way to make it a negative.
UPDATE: Points to Volin for digging up the data to compare Tebow's score to the 30 starting QBs in the NFL.
NFL Tebow: Jaguars Fans Don't Want?
It was also unclear whether they were talking about the team's 1st-round pick... or not taking Tebow AT ALL. I presume they would be happy to have him as a 2nd- or 3rd-rounder.
Here's the thing: Will Jaguars season-ticket holders revoke their tickets if the team drafts Tebow? Now compare that to the NEW people that will buy season tickets if Tebow is on the team.
That said: If the team was going to draft Tebow -- particularly in the 1st round -- they were going to have to do it under the cover of overwhelming fan support.
It appears they do not have that, at least among the paying fans.
(If you're wondering whether this data point contributes to me wanting to revise my long-standing theory that the Jags will take Tebow in the 1st round with the No. 10 pick, it does.)
Monday, March 8, 2010
Tebow Trivia: Jerseys He Has Rocked
The answers: Emmitt Smith (his favorite player growing up), Danny Wuerffel (his idol) and Michael Jordan (who didn't?).
Want to feel old? When Michael Jordan won his last NBA title in 1998 -- which feels like a week ago to some of us -- Tim Tebow was 10 years old.
Some day, my kids are going to ask me what their first sports jerseys were, and the answer is going to be "Tim Tebow." By the time they are Tebow's age now, Tebow will almost assuredly be out of the NFL -- even if he has a nice long career, it can't possibly last 20 years.
(Actually, technically my first son's first jersey was Percy Harvin's No. 1 Florida jersey, because at the time he was an infant in the summer/fall of '06, they didn't have No. 15 jerseys.)
NFL Tebow: Seahawks, Bills Interested?
For example, there's a report about both the Seahawks and the Bills scheduling private sessions with Tebow, which begs a few questions:
*Are they eyeing Tebow for the 1st round? As both have Top 10 picks, that can't possibly be right, so they are probably trying to see if they need to figure out a way to take him at the top of the 2nd. (I think that if he was available then, the Bills would jump.)
*My presumption was that Tebow didn't fit the profile of a "Pete Carroll QB" -- Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley... even Matt Cassel. These are standard, drop-back, "prototype" and "NFL-style" QBs. That isn't Tebow. Interesting.
Regardless, keep an eye on the teams lining up Tebow for private workouts. Maybe they are merely indulging their owners or want to draft off the p.r. buzz that comes with being in Tebow's gravitational pull, but maybe they are signaling a very real interest.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Tim Tebow Did Not Steal Darrell Waltrip's Car
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Tebow: Most Polarizing of NFL Draft
*Tebow is THE storyline of the draft; there has never been a player ranked so low to have so much impact.
*Where Tebow might go will be the biggest plotline -- of Round 1, of Round 2... perhaps beyond. It will be the biggest storyline this week, in two weeks for Florida's "Pro Day" and the final four-week sprint until Draft Week itself, in which he will be the biggest plotline.
*If he isn't selected in the 1st round on Thursday, where he might go will be the lead story on Thursday night and Friday morning -- even ahead of the players selected in the 1st round.
*Draftniks will make their careers based on bearish proclamations about Tebow. However, as I have said before, Tebow's stock will only go up from here. It will be fun to track the change in momentum -- and how the draftniks deal with the cognitive dissonance.
The bottom line: The question isn't whether Tebow is the most polarizing (or, as I'd put it, "most intriguing") player of the 2010 Draft; as with most of Tebow's career, the question is whether Tebow is the most polarizing/intriguing player in the HISTORY of the NFL Draft.
-- Dan
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
NFL Tebow: ESPN Fantasizes
Currently leading the front page of ESPN.com is a massive package all about where Tebow might get drafted, featuring extensive team-by-team analysis by all 8 of ESPN.com's divisional NFL bloggers. Given that it is March 2, this is an epic package that supports the theory that Tebow's draft status isn't just the biggest NFL story of the spring... but the biggest sports story, period:

My biggest issue with their team-by-team analysis of where Tebow might land is that they don't actually rank any team as having a "high" chance of taking him -- the tops is "medium" (Redskins, 49ers, Rams, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Bills, Pats, Broncos, Raiders). That seems like a lot of teams.
They also list the Jaguars as "low," which I think couldn't be more wrong -- and to suggest that they won't let the marketing department make their pick for them is misguided; replace "marketing department" with "owner," and I'll tell you who wins that battle. It should at least be "medium."
There are a bunch of teams listed as "no chance" that feel awkward -- the analysts seem to base their decision around whether Tebow would step in and start immediately, rather than projecting him as a capable back-up and special-situation QB for a few seasons before taking over. You know: The standard model for QBs selected in the draft.
Mostly, my issue is that they don't distinguish between a team using a 1st-round pick on Tebow and a team using a 2nd-round pick on Tebow. And some of the team-by-team analysis puts Tebow on a team's radar beyond the 2nd round; he isn't lasting that long.
I go back to my original theory: Tebow's stock isn't going down from here; it will only go up. Even after the Senior Bowl, there was no way he was lasting past the mid-2nd round. Now layer in his "revamping" mechanics, his stellar Combine workouts, his terrific interviews. Stock: Up.
Wait until his Pro Day, when he looks so much better than he did in Mobile. Then watch the jockeying between March 17 and the first day of the Draft -- if he falls through the 1st round, he could be the 1st pick of the 2nd round the next day. Again: His stock is only going up, no matter how much it might drive the draftniks crazy.
The entire thing is worth your time -- I don't agree with a bunch of the theories being thrown out there, but they are interesting for their own sake. I really do think that the vast majority of sports media are completely mis-reading both the market for Tebow and the opportunity for his success, both in the short- and long-term. (Consider that these are the same folks who were taken by complete surprise when the Wildcat was imported from college to the NFL; imagination isn't their strong suit. Adhering to orthodoxy is.)
UPDATE: By the way, 62 percent of fans on ESPN.com think Tebow is drafted by the end of the 2nd round. Again: It doesn't matter where Todd McShay GRADES Tebow; it only matters where Tebow is actually drafted.
Tebow Combine: QB or TE? Um: QB.
The way I see it is, however, that he established himself as arguably the most overall athletic QB in the NFL, which will only help him... as a QB.
If he is put in the right system with coaches who are clever enough to know how to use him, this could yield long-term benefits (starting QB) AND short-term ones ("Wildcat 2.0").
In other words: Using him as a TE or H-back would be wasting his talents as a QB. I still contend that he could help reinvent the QB role, even perhaps in a "platoon" function (which, of course, is precisely what the Wildcat already creates, whether run by a QB or RB).
Monday, March 1, 2010
Tim Tebow At the NFL Draft Combine
*He remains, without question, the biggest star in the Draft. Last night, I saw a promo for ESPN's draft coverage and it featured photos of Clausen and Suh; by mid-March, I think Tebow will be the go-to visual, because he combines the most popular/well-known player and the most intriguing storyline. His combine results were always the No. 1 story.
*Tebow didn't throw. Big deal. No QBs throw anymore. Hell, Bradford and McCoy might not be able to throw right now, period. (I find myself so mystified by the Bradford-for-No. 1 storyline that I can barely discuss it -- his shoulder is one hit away from being disconnect to his body...again. And he comes from as much of a "system" as any QB of the last decade.
*By the full set of numbers, Tebow could be the most athletic QB in the NFL. There isn't a QB who combines his speed (4.7!), strength (he would surely set the all-time record for bench presses by a QB, if he was allowed to try), explosiveness (best-ever broad jump) and quickness (see him in the 3-cone drill). In other words: He has all the physical tools.
*Charles Smith's "scoop" that Florida tried to change Tebow's mechanics last spring, only to have him revert when he got into real game situations... well, that's hardly a scoop to anyone who has been following Tebow for the past year. Again: It gets a big "...And?"
*Tebow's mechanics remain a work in progress, but the point is that he is working at them, with a crack team of experts (including Jon Gruden!?). And Tebow isn't going to be expected to step in and start immediately, which means he will not just have mini-camp and the summer and training camp to continue developing, but all next season -- and maybe the season after that. All the while, he will absolutely be able to contribute meaningfully (and immediately) in short-yardage or goal-line or otherwise-creative situations that the coaches put him in. If only every rookie QB could offer that combination of instant specialized help plus long-term upside.
By every metric -- every measurable metric, which is the point -- Tebow's Combine was a success. Next up: His "Pro Day" in Gainesville in two weeks, which is going to be the biggest frenzy in the NFL between now and the week of the Draft itself in late April.
-- Dan